China's economy is expected to come out of a valley by the middle of this year due to an expected rise in leading economic indicators, Evergrande Group Chief Economist Ren Zeping said during a recent forum.
"Recently several leading indicators have rebounded," Ren said at a forum held by CITIC Press Group for Ray Dalio's new book, titled A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises. "The rise in the growth rate of M2 and the stock market suggest the economy will take a turn for the better."
Ren also forecasted a bull market in Chinese stocks, citing favorable reforms as key factors. "Given the large-scale tax reduction plan Premier Li Keqiang announced in the Government Work Report during the concluded two sessions, substantial progress made in Sino-US trade talks, the importance attached to the private sector and the launch of the science and technology innovation board, there is plenty of room for further gains by Chinese stocks."
According to Ren, three major factors were at play in last year's economic difficulties. "The first factor was a tightening global monetary policy and the Fed's move towards interest rate rises. Even the US economy has been down from its peak," Ren said.
"China's exports saw challenges with the rise of trade protectionism," Ren added. "The economy also felt the pinch from a tightening of liquidity conditions during financial deleveraging. While this has reduced credit risk, it has also increased financing difficulties for private enterprises."
"In the next 10 years, or even 20 years, I think, the best investment opportunity lies in China," Ren added. "Since China's per-capita GDP is one-sixth of that of the US and its GDP growth rate remains above 6 percent, two to three times higher than that of the US, there will be huge potential in China."
Li Jingya contributed to this story.
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